3-hour Smackdown, All In Texas, Lee Fitting, AEW international rights, Netflix
Wrestlenomics Report
In this issue:
Housekeeping: What is this?
Smackdown moves to 3 hours in January
Early All In Texas estimate of tickets distributed
Netflix NFL games average about 24 million viewers, no major issues
AEW international rights: ITV renews UK, Sky in Italy expires, new Canada deal
WWE moves to Netflix in India in April
WWE, Vince McMahon, and John Laurinaitis re-file motions to compel arbitration, as expected
Opinion: What Lee Fitting’s hiring says about the new WWE and Nick Khan
State of the Business
Rankings for TV ratings
TV ratings, year-over-year-comparisons
High-performing quarter-hours
Merchandise
Housekeeping: What is this?
My plan is to finish this on Fridays.
In addition to Patreon, I’m also going to publish this on Substack. But Patreon will remain the best place to support Wrestlenomics and get the best value for your subscription. I want to make this material available to users on Substack, though, who may be more familiar with that platform, in hope of reaching a wider audience.
I decided to start writing this newsletter weekly instead of doing the Wrestlenomics Radio podcast. I know some listeners were disappointed as it was part of their weekly routine, which I apologize for disrupting.
Everyone these days has a podcast. I had two. I very much enjoy doing the Pollock & Thurston podcast, and that program will continue. In the long run, the time I previously spent on Wrestlenomics Radio I believe will be used much better here, for Wrestlenomics as a business and more importantly for providing information that informs more people, and more effectively.
I believe strongly that medium matters—more than most realize. With the occasional visual aid, I believe this newsletter will have a greater impact than Wrestlenomics Radio could. Which means, unfortunately, you’ll have to get your unintentional ASMR somewhere else.
Then again, some have asked me to record the writing here also as audio for those who’d rather listen. I’ll consider it, but won’t make any guarantees for now. I would rather err on the side of under-promising and over-delivering. It’s why I could never be a wrestling promoter.
Along those lines, before I set higher expectations, this newsletter won’t always be this long. There was some news backed up from taking time off for the holidays.
The first issue is free for everyone so any potential subscribers can check it out. Some segment of the material here each week might be released for free some time later so that people can sample the newsletter and consider subscribing. I might also consider making one issue per month free, like how one episode of the podcast each month was free. But you can expect most of the content here will be behind a paywall.
You’ll also find a “State of the Business” section at the end here that I plan to update weekly. Its format will probably change over time and I plan to add some data to it from YouTube and for live events in the near future.
Will there be opinion pieces here? To some degree, yes. There’s a long one toward the end of this issue, and it’s toward the back deliberately because facts usually come first. I don’t expect to write many long opinion pieces. Occasionally, when certain facts and patterns emerge, though, I feel compelled to write something, especially if the matter seems clear but few are saying it.
I understand there’s a cost to having opinions. I think certain opinions that have to do with responsibility, though, are worth the cost.
Separately from opinion, there might also be some analysis here, too. Like opinion, I will try to clearly label analysis to distinguish it from news or facts.
What’s the difference between opinion and analysis? To me, analysis is like an explanation of some facts that the audience broadly is probably not going to understand without some help, but I’m going to have to make some arbitrary decisions about how to explain it, how to frame the situation, and so forth; we’ve moved away from bare facts. Reasonable people can disagree about what is fair or unfair analysis, but analysis is not quite the diagnosis that an opinion is.
And finally, there will be facts. Maybe mainly facts. TV ratings, multimillion-dollar deals, trees falling in forests. Reasonable people actually can disagree about the facts, I think—but not usually. If they’re obscure, if they’re hard to confirm, yes. For the most part, though, facts are not up for debate, even as algorithms encourage you to debate them. Which is why it’s important to support reporters and outlets you appreciate with your direct subscriptions if you can. It very slightly neutralizes civil unrest. And what could be more important than that? So sign up now.
Smackdown moves to 3 hours in January
WWE quietly disclosed that Smackdown will become a three-hour program next week.
“At the start of 2025, SmackDown will expand to three hours starting with the Jan. 3 episode from Phoenix, Arizona,” a post on WWE.com about where to watch the company’s major programs stated.
Analysis: The revelation raises questions about whether the added hour of Smackdown was a part of the new deal with USA Network parent NBCUniversal, which went into effect his fall.
The average annual value of the U.S. Smackdown deal is $287 million, as reported by both CNBC and The Wall Street Journal, when the agreement was announced in September 2023.
That was thought to be a 40% increase over the previous Smackdown deal with Fox was for an average of $205 million per year from late 2019 to late 2024, though the news that Smackdown is getting more than two weekly hours complicates the straightforward comparison in value
Fox didn’t bid aggressively for Smackdown because, according to Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch, Fox couldn’t get a strong enough return on its investment in the form of advertising revenue or increases to the broadcaster’s carriage fees.
It’s notable that with the move to three hours in January, USA Network will continuously have at least three hours of WWE programming on the channel, even as Raw moved from three hours to two, since Smackdown moved to USA on Sept. 13, bumping hours of weekly WWE content on USA from three to four.
With Raw leaving USA in January, USA won’t fall to two hours, but instead to three with the lengthening of Smackdown.
Having at least three hours of WWE content on USA is probably helpful to USA’s advertising efforts and possibly to fortifying the channel's carriage fee value.
Based on the viewership Smackdown is now delivering on USA, a three-hour program aligns better with the cost per viewer hour of Raw. Though all of these cost per viewer hour calculations are complicated by the transition in distribution that all of the programs are in the midst of.
I believe the three-hour duration was likely part of the original deal, given WWE communicated the change quietly, probably partly because they know fans have long-complained about the three-hour duration of Raw. But if this news represented an actual increase in payment or other value for the Smackdown deal, I’d expect some kind of news about a renegotiation of the deal, which hasn’t materialized in the week since the news emerged.
Early All In Texas estimate of tickets distributed
WrestleTix made its first estimate on Sunday of tickets out for AEW’s All In Texas, at 9,990 estimated distributed.
I helped by providing a color-coded map of the data derived from Ticketmaster, based on various conditions, intended to assist in determining which seats to rule in and out of the estimate.
The show just outside Dallas, at Globe Life Field, is six-and-half months away, on Jul. 12, at the home of the Texas Rangers.
Analysis/opinion: All In 2024 had a similar long lead time for ticket sales, with general on-sale beginning on Dec. 1, 2023, which was, 268 days in advance of the Aug. 25, 2024 event date. General on-sale for the 2025 event started on Dec. 9, which is 215 days in advance.
The final estimate from WrestleTix for All In 2024 was 53,654 at Wembley Stadium (with the local government disclosing to Wrestlenomics that 46,476 tickets were used).
WrestleTix’s earliest estimate for All In 2024 (posted Nov. 28, 2023) was 27,349, which was 51% of the final estimate. If we apply the assumption to the 2025 event, that tickets distributed are currently 51% of the final count, that would result in a final count for All In 2025 of about 19,500.
Evaluating success here is a lightning rod that will no doubt become more vociferous as Jul. 12 approaches. If AEW is able to distribute more than 19,000 tickets—provided the portion of comps isn’t much above typical—that would be a number that’s slightly too big for an arena. In that case AEW could at least take solace in the notion that they drew a crowd just big enough to justify a venue bigger than a typical NBA/NHL-sized arena.
That said, the event is on a trajectory to deliver less than half of the 2024 attendance, and this is with the benefit of All In being in the U.S., in a more convenient traveling location for AEW’s domestic fan base. If All in 2025 at the end does have about 19,500 tickets out, it would be another data point adding to the existing preponderance of data points to show that AEW fan interest has diminished significantly.
Netflix NFL games average about 24 million viewers, no major issues
Netflix aired two NFL games on Christmas Day live on Netflix with no major technical issues.
The two NFL games, Chiefs vs. Steelers and Ravens vs. Texas, each averaged 24.1 million and 24.3 million viewers in the U.S., respectively, according to Nielsen fast nationals cited in a Netflix press release on Thursday.
This was the first time Nielsen measured a live broadcast on Netflix. The viewership numbers were measured with the Average Minute Audience (AMA) method, which means that data is like-to-like with the typical viewership numbers we report from Nielsen.
Last year on Christmas, there were three NFL games on traditional broadcast networks, which each delivered somewhat higher viewership than the Netflix games. Raiders vs. Chiefs on CBS averaged 29.5 million, Giants vs. Eagles on Fox averaged 29.0 million, and Ravens vs. 49ers on ABC averaged 27.6 million.
Analysis: The data for the NFL games on Netflix is a more transparent look at the kind of audience Netflix can deliver. The data is third-party, as opposed to Netflix’s first-party data, such as the viewership figures announced after the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight. Keep in mind, Netflix is a global platform. The NFL measurements from Nielsen were U.S. only, measured with AMA, so are directly comparable to other NFL ratings and familiar television ratings in general, which are also U.S. only.
Netflix announced the Tyson-Paul fight in November peaked at 65 million “concurrent streams” and 38 million in the U.S. That broadcast was plagued with wide complaints about streaming issues. WWE will have a significant but smaller audience. The lack of any major problems broadcasting NFL games is reassuring that WWE live streaming is more likely to go off without issues.
There’s no sign that Nielsen will measure any WWE broadcasts on Netflix at this point. Netflix confirmed that VideoAmp will provide third-party data for advertisers, but it’s unclear if any of that information will be made public.
It wouldn’t surprising if by Tuesday Netflix and/or WWE put out a press release celebrating the Jan. 6 Monday Night Raw premiere with data that isn’t comparable to Nielsen data we’re familiar with, perhaps leading with a global peak audience number that’s much higher than the roughly 1.5 million viewers that Raw averages in the U.S. live+same-day. If they make an announcement on Tuesday, they could perhaps lump in some delayed viewing as well.
Nonetheless, I would lean toward fully expecting the Raw premiere on Netflix to deliver a genuinely larger live+same-day audience than the typical episode of Raw lately on USA Network, given Netflix’s actually superior reach at this point compared to top cable, and given the strong marketing push and hype around the first episode. Not to mention, Jan. 6 is free of any NFL competition, which Raw has been head-to-head with since September.
What Raw averages in the U.S. on a regular basis compared to its USA Network ratings, I’m less sure of. And I’m also uncertain we’ll get reliable data to actually get that insight. However, I think there’s a possibility Raw’s global viewership, including delayed viewing, will appear on Netflix’s self-disclosed weekly top 10 most-watched TV shows rankings. Netflix also posts weekly rankings for the U.S. and many other countries, but without revealing viewing data that underlies those rankings.
AEW international rights: ITV renews UK, Sky in Italy expires, new Canada deal
ITV announced in a press release on Tuesday that it’s extended AEW’s existing deal with the UK network. Dynamite on Fridays and Collision on Wednesdays will continue airing free-to-air on ITV4 as well as on ITV’s streaming platform ITVX. AEW programming has been on ITV since AEW’s launch in 2019.
AEW’s Italian commentator Salvatore Torrisi said in an Instagram video that AEW would no longer air on Sky in Italy in the new year, which Wrestlenomics confirmed is accurate with a source familiar with the Sky-AEW relationship. AEW Plus will continue to be offered by Triller in Italy, as is the case in many international markets. We’re told AEW will also have some new international deals that will begin in 2025.
On Friday’s media call, Tony Khan said AEW had multiple offers for its media rights in Canada. Khan said AEW “got a major rights fee increase” from Bell Media, the parent company of TSN, which broadcasts Dynamite in the country. As part of the new deal, Bell announced earlier this month that Collision will air on the Canadian version of the USA Network, beginning January. Before then, Collision has only been available on the TSN app in the region.
WWE moves to Netflix in India in April
WWE will move from Sony’s Ten Sports network to Netflix in India beginning in April, according to Business Standard. India likely surpassed the UK in recent years as WWE’s second-most valuable media rights market (behind the U.S.). India will join much of WWE’s international rights, which move to Netflix upon the premiere of Raw on the platform on Jan. 6.
Business Standard put the value of the soon-ending Sony deal at $180 million to $210 million over five years, which comes out to an average annual value of around $40 million.
Sony, which has distributed WWE since 2002 in India, was eager to renew, Business Standard reported. However, “digital performance of WWE content on [Sony’s] platform reportedly fell short of expectations during the current rights cycle,” the report stated.
Netflix’s reach in India is likely considerably lower than that of Sony’s Ten Sports, which is a pay TV channel. Netflix reportedly has 12 million subscribers in the country with a population of 1.4 billion. That’s a contrast to the reach Netflix offers in the U.S., where Netflix has now surpassed the coverage of top cable networks like USA.
WWE, Vince McMahon, and John Laurinaitis re-file motions to compel arbitration, as expected
In a minor update on the Janel Grant lawsuit, with the stay lifted on Dec. 11, the defendants all re-filed their motions to move the case out of public court and into private arbitration, as expected.
When Judge Jeffrey A. Meyer ordered the federal case put on hold for six months in June, pending an investigation from the Southern District of New York (SDNY), he also dismissed all existing motions without prejudice, allowing them to be re-filed within two weeks of the stay being lifted.
The defendants—Vince McMahon, John Laurinaitis, and WWE—naturally re-submitted their motions to send the case to arbitration, citing the arbitration clause in Grant’s agreement with Vince McMahon that also promised to pay her $3 million over the course of five years in return for her silence about her relationship with McMahon and WWE.
With no charges brought yet from SDNY against anyone involved in the case, the six-month stay expired.
The filings submitted by the defendants on Monday and Tuesday were largely similar to those they submitted last spring.
One notable exception is that McMahon’s renewed motion hinted at a possible defamation lawsuit he may be considering against Grant.
“While it will be impossible to fully remedy the wrong of publicizing [Grant’s] salacious and false allegations,” McMahon’s attorney wrote, “Defendant McMahon will pursue appropriate remedies at the proper juncture.”
McMahon’s representatives did not return a request to confirm he is in fact considering a defamation suit.
Legal arguments from both McMahon and WWE also anticipated that Grant’s attorneys might look to the Ending Forced Arbitration of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment Act (EFAA) to justify avoiding arbitration, which is a new addition to their motions submitted earlier this year.
Attorneys for the defendants contend that the EFAA went into effect on Mar. 2, 2022, and the law is not retroactive. The NDA signed by Grant and McMahon (who signed both for himself and for WWE) was executed on Jan. 28, 2022, before the EFAA’s effective date, and therefore, the attorneys argue, the new law does not prevent the judge from ordering the case into arbitration.
Grant’s attorneys have already contended that other laws, including the Speak Out Act and the Victims of Trafficking and Violation Protection Act (TVPA), cause her agreement with McMahon to be unenforceable. The defendants reasserted their arguments otherwise, saying that those acts pertain to non-disclosure clauses but not to the arbitration clause that was also among the clauses Grant and McMahon agreed to.
Opinion: What Lee Fitting’s hiring says about the new WWE and Nick Khan
When ESPN fired Lee Fitting in August 2023, it was a surprise. Fitting, a Senior Vice President with 25 years at the network, was reportedly let go after numerous allegations of misconduct. According to The Athletic, which broke the news this month, his alleged behavior included objectifying comments about women, crude jokes, and inappropriate criticisms of physical appearances. Fitting's sudden exit came just weeks before the new season of College Gameday, the program he served as head of production. Fitting’s spokesperson denied some of the allegations but didn’t address others.
By January 2024, Fitting resurfaced—as WWE's new head of production. It wasn't a surprising hire. Fitting played a key role on one of the most popular pre-game shows on television. WWE President Nick Khan is deeply connected to the sports media world. When he was a CAA agent, his clients included many ESPN personalities and Gameday on-air talent like Kirk Herbstreit and Tom Rinaldi.
But Fitting’s hiring—now that we know why he left ESPN—raises questions about how serious Khan is about reforming WWE’s culture and reputation following perhaps the biggest scandal in the company's history. Fitting's hiring would be questionable enough if this wasn't Khan's first hiring of an executive with a history of alleged sexual misconduct, and if Khan hadn't so readily expressed loyalty to Vince McMahon after he tried to return from disgrace in 2023.
In 2017, Jamie Horowitz was fired from Fox Sports amid allegations of sexual harassment. Horowitz’s attorney lamented he’d been treated unfairly. Fox described his termination as "fully warranted." But by June 2021 Khan brought Horowitz into WWE as Executive Vice President of Digital & Development. Horowitz stayed on until late 2023, leaving after WWE's merger with UFC.
In 2022, the company's Board of Directors—of which Khan was a member—investigated McMahon after it was discovered he paid millions to women who worked for WWE who he allegedly harassed or assaulted. Those women included Janel Grant, a former paralegal who later further alleged McMahon trafficked her. As most reading this know, McMahon resigned in July 2022 but returned five months later using his superior voting shares, putting himself back on the Board.
By the time of Vince's return, Khan, as a Board member would have understood the allegations against McMahon better than nearly anyone: four women with non-disclosure agreements, including a former talent who accused McMahon of coercing her into oral sex, an additional two alleged misconduct incidents at spas, and former WWF referee Rita Chatterton's allegation of rape. That’s seven different women alleging misconduct against McMahon, most of whom worked for him. But for Khan, McMahon's return seemed inevitable. He told Bill Simmons, days after Vince's comeback, that during McMahon's hiatus Khan maintained contact.
"I made a point, as did others, to see him once a month or so while he was sitting out," Khan said on Simmons' podcast, framing McMahon as a sympathetic figure. "I think those things are important and it's no different, in my opinion, than when other mutual friends of ours who have gone through hard times professionally, that's when they sort of need to hear from folks most, that, hey, you haven't forgotten about them and you're appreciative of them and all of those things."
When Vince's comeback in January 2023 prompted the resignation of multiple Board members—including his own daughter, Stephanie—Khan stayed on. He and current Chief Content Officer Paul Levesque (McMahon’s son-in-law) were still a part of the Board when the members unanimously voted to restore McMahon as Executive Chairman.
Independent directors Ignace Lahoud and Man Jit Singh quit the Board rather than cooperate with Vince's return.
"It wasn't aligned with my way of seeing what governance is,” Lahoud told the LA Times in September 2023. "There was a misalignment with what my values are."
WWE's decision to hire Fitting to such a prominent position less than a year later raises obvious questions about the company's priorities. If reporter Andrew Marchand indicated something was afoul immediately after Fitting’s firing in August 2023, if The Athletic could source more than 20 women to learn more about his exit, it's hard to imagine Khan—one of the most well-connected figures in sports media—didn't know what why he was fired, or couldn't easily find out. WWE was indeed aware of why Fitting left ESPN, according to PWInsider.
What conclusion is there to make other than that being fired from your previous job for creating a toxic work environment for women at least isn't a deal-breaker when being considered for one of the top executive roles in WWE even in early 2024, with headlines of McMahon’s alleged abuse in the recent past—and worse headlines in near future.
Just three weeks after Fitting's hiring, Grant filed her lawsuit against McMahon and WWE. Her complaint alleged in graphic detail not only sex trafficking and multiple sexual assaults but also that WWE's culture and leadership enabled it. The suit identified "WWE Corporate Officer No. 1"—who Grant's attorney later confirmed is a pseudonym for Nick Khan—as an executive who she says was supportive of the CEO’s relationship with the paralegal under his employ. While Grant did not accuse Khan of any direct abuse, she claimed he was aware of McMahon's relationship with her.
"WWE takes Ms. Grant’s allegations very seriously and has no tolerance for any physical abuse or unwanted physical contact," a WWE spokesperson said in one of the company's only acknowledgements of the lawsuit, in March. WWE also added that Khan didn't know of any allegations of abuse before Grant's lawsuit was made public.
With few exceptions, WWE has repeatedly avoided commenting on these allegations or broader issues about its culture. Silence might be a part of their strategy to avoid further legal complications and to minimize negative press. Or it might reflect leadership’s lack of understanding and empathy for misconduct in the workplace and how to handle it, even with words. Look no further than Levesque’s bewilderment at how to respond when faced with press questions about the Grant case a few days after it was filed.
Nor have executives addressed the "ring boy" lawsuit filed in October, which alleges a history of sexual abuse allegations within WWE—of children in that case—throughout the 1980s.
A few months ago, Grant's representatives called on WWE to release any women from NDAs who may have experienced misconduct at the company, similar to how NDAs were eventually waived by Harvey Weinstein’s company. WWE hasn’t acknowledged that demand at all.
The history of wrestling in many ways is a history of people in charge trying to ignore what everyone else is thinking. The new era of WWE is so far no different.
Wrestlemania 41 last April was presented as a symbolic turning point. Khan and Head of Communications Chris Legentil made subtle on-screen appearances. Levesque, especially, and Bruce Prichard were celebrated before the audience. During the post-show press conference, Levesque praised Fitting, too, for his contributions. The message was clear to anyone looking past the matches and the spectacle of Wrestlemania: Vince is gone; this is a new era.
But is it? Under Khan's leadership, WWE has become more profitable than ever. Yet despite the deals, profits, and symbolic gestures, there's little to publicly suggest the company is all that serious about changing its culture. Khan’s polished and affable image as a dealmaker—beloved by the sports media he enriched—distracts from his role in upholding pro wrestling’s time-honored tradition of not letting sexual abuse allegations get in the way of business.
It’s hard to find anything Khan has said or done in public that offsets his actions regarding Fitting and Horowitz and both his actions and statements regarding McMahon. Khan has rarely addressed McMahon’s scandals publicly, and when he has, it's among other topics with media friendlies like Bill Simmons and Matt Belloni, who know enough about WWE to be fascinated by its exciting business and to giggle at its zany form of entertainment, but not enough to question whether there are any ethics at the heart of Khan's leadership.
On the other hand, maybe the WWE President, in another one of his savvy calculations, observed that genuinely raising the company's standards isn't worth the effort, and that hiring someone like Fitting to one of the top jobs in WWE was too good to pass up, even as he reportedly knew why he left ESPN.
After all, this is pro wrestling, where—still more than the rest of the world—abuse often doesn’t have real consequences for those who cause or enable it, especially if they’re powerful. Fans are largely indifferent. Media is mostly oblivious. And business partners care only as much as headlines force them to. So hiring Fitting isn’t out of step with WWE's long-standing openness to leaders who may cultivate a hostile workplace for women or others.
You might think the new Vince McMahon-free WWE would work hard to distance itself from being seen as a refuge for those accused of harassment and abuse. But maybe Nick Khan knows that not enough people really care about that. Maybe he doesn't, either.
==========
State of the Business
Rankings for TV ratings
While TV viewership -- offset by changes in household coverage -- may be a reasonable indicator of fan engagement, the ranking of these programs are a more reliable indicator of a program’s media value.
Weekly primetime ranking: P18-49 among cable originals & broadcast
Moving 52-week median, smoothed. Preemptions excluded.
Ranking: Median weekly P18-49 primetime among cable originals & broadcast
Top 100 Primetime telecasts, sorted by P18-49: 7 days beginning Thu Dec 19, 2024 through Wed Dec 25, 2024
Data from Nielsen via Programming Insider
1.) 4.07 - NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys) | NBC, Sun Dec 22
2.) 2.49 - CFP FIRST ROUND (Tennessee at Ohio State) | ABC, Sat Dec 21
3.) 2.21 - FOOTBALL NIGHT IN AMERICA (Part 3) | NBC, Sun Dec 22
4.) 1.85 - NFL REGULAR SEASON (New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers) | ESPN, Mon Dec 23
5.) 1.65 - CFP FIRST ROUND (Indiana at Notre Dame) | ESPN, Fri Dec 20
6.) 1.42 - CFP FIRST ROUND (Indiana at Notre Dame) | ABC, Fri Dec 20
7.) 1.37 - MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ON ABC (New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers) | ABC, Mon Dec 23
8.) 1.32 - NBA CHRISTMAS SPECIAL-4 (Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors) | ABC, Wed Dec 25
9.) 1.05 - CFP FIRST ROUND L (Tennessee at Ohio State) | ESPN, Sat Dec 21
10.) 1.00 - NBA REGULAR SEASON (Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors) | ESPN, Wed Dec 25
11.) 0.97 - 60 MINUTES | CBS, Sun Dec 22
12.) 0.63 - HOME ALONE | ABC, Tue Dec 24
13.) 0.60 - NBA CHRISTMAS SPECIAL-5 (Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns) | ABC, Wed Dec 25
14.) 0.56 - FOX COLLEGE HOOPS-BIG EAST WOMEN PRIME (USC at UConn) | FOX, Sat Dec 21
15.) 0.45 - GHOSTS | CBS, Thu Dec 19
16.) 0.42 - WWE RAW | USA, Mon Dec 23
17.) 0.41 - CELEBRITY JEOPARDY! | ABC, Tue Dec 24
18.) 0.40 - NBC MOVIE SPECIAL 12/25 (Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas) | NBC, Wed Dec 25
19.) 0.37 - NBC MOVIE SPECIAL (It’s A Wonderful Life) | NBC, Tue Dec 24
19.) 0.37 - WWE FRIDAY NIGHT SMACKDOWN | USA, Fri Dec 20
21.) 0.33 - SNL CHRISTMAS | NBC, Mon Dec 23
22.) 0.32 - NATE BARGATZE’S NASHVILLE XMAS | CBS, Thu Dec 19
23.) 0.29 - KENNEDY CENTER HONORS | CBS, Sun Dec 22
24.) 0.28 - THE SANTA CLAUSE | ABC, Sun Dec 22
24.) 0.28 - DR. SEUSS’ HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS | NBC, Wed Dec 25
26.) 0.26 - THE SIMPSONS | FOX, Sun Dec 22
27.) 0.24 - CHRISTMAS AT GRACELAND | NBC, Mon Dec 23
27.) 0.24 - THE NEIGHBORHOOD | CBS, Mon Dec 23
27.) 0.24 - GREAT XMAS L-FIGHT-12/19 | ABC, Thu Dec 19
27.) 0.24 - NCAA STUDIO UPDATE | ESPN, Thu Dec 19
31.) 0.23 - SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE | NBC, Sat Dec 21
32.) 0.22 - DATELINE CLASSIC | NBC, Fri Dec 20
33.) 0.21 - SHREK THE HALLS | NBC, Fri Dec 20
33.) 0.21 - MANHUNT:MANGIONE-CEO MUR | ABC, Thu Dec 19
35.) 0.20 - ELSBETH | CBS, Thu Dec 19
35.) 0.20 - NCIS | CBS, Wed Dec 25
35.) 0.20 - THE PRICE IS RIGHT AT NIGHT | CBS, Tue Dec 24
35.) 0.20 - POPPA’S HOUSE | CBS, Mon Dec 23
35.) 0.20 - AEW: COLLISION | TNT, Sat Dec 21
40.) 0.19 - DATELINE MYSTERY | NBC, Sat Dec 21
40.) 0.19 - NCAA BASKETBALL (Ohio State vs. Kentucky) | CBS, Sat Dec 21
42.) 0.18 - CHRISTMAS WITH ANDREA BOCELLI AND FRIENDS: A GRAMMY HOLIDAY SPECIAL | CBS, Tue Dec 24
42.) 0.18 - NCIS | CBS, Wed Dec 25
42.) 0.18 - HAPPY’S PLACE | NBC, Fri Dec 20
42.) 0.18 - NATE BARGATZE’S NASHVILLE CHRISTMAS | CBS, Tue Dec 24
42.) 0.18 - KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX, Mon Dec 23
42.) 0.18 - AEW DYNAMITE | TBS, Wed Dec 25
48.) 0.17 - JESSE WATTERS PRIMETIME | FOX NEWS, Thu Dec 19
48.) 0.17 - NATIONAL CHRISTMAS TREE LIGHTING | CBS, Fri Dec 20
48.) 0.17 - HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS | CBS, Fri Dec 20
48.) 0.17 - NCIS | CBS, Wed Dec 25
48.) 0.17 - 90 DAY FIANCÉ: BEFORE THE 90 DAYS | TLC, Sun Dec 22
48.) 0.17 - KITCHEN NIGHTMARES | FOX, Mon Dec 23
48.) 0.17 - UNIVERSAL BASIC GUYS | FOX, Sun Dec 22
55.) 0.16 - NCIS | CBS, Mon Dec 23
55.) 0.16 - XMAS AT THE OPRY 12/19 | NBC, Thu Dec 19
55.) 0.16 - DATELINE MYSTERY | NBC, Sat Dec 21
55.) 0.16 - NBA BASKETBALL (New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves) | TNT, Thu Dec 19
55.) 0.16 - THE GREAT NORTH | FOX, Sun Dec 22
60.) 0.15 - HANNITY | FOX NEWS, Thu Dec 19
60.) 0.15 - NCIS: ORIGINS | CBS, Mon Dec 23
60.) 0.15 - 48 HOURS PRESENTS | CBS, Sat Dec 21
60.) 0.15 - CMA COUNTRY CHRISTMAS | ABC, Sun Dec 22
60.) 0.15 - FULL GAME BROADCAST (Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans) | NFL NETWORK, Wed Dec 25
60.) 0.15 - COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAME (Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State) | ESPN2, Thu Dec 19
60.) 0.15 - KRAPOPOLIS | FOX, Sun Dec 22
67.) 0.14 - GUTFELD! | FOX NEWS, Thu Dec 19
67.) 0.14 - BARRY MANILOW CHRISTMAS | NBC, Thu Dec 19
67.) 0.14 - 90 DAY: THE LAST RESORT | TLC, Mon Dec 23
67.) 0.14 - WWE NXT | CW, Tue Dec 24
67.) 0.14 - REAL HOUSEWIVES OF POTOMAC | BRAVO, Sun Dec 22
72.) 0.13 - GOLD RUSH | DISCOVERY, Fri Dec 20
72.) 0.13 - HELL’S KITCHEN-ENCORE | FOX, Thu Dec 19
72.) 0.13 - HELL’S KITCHEN-SP12/19/24 | FOX, Thu Dec 19
72.) 0.13 - CFP FIRST ROUND L (Tennessee at Ohio State) | ESPN2, Sat Dec 21
76.) 0.12 - HALL ORIGINAL MOV IE 3 (Happy Howlidays) | HALLMARK, Sat Dec 21
76.) 0.12 - LEGO MASTERS: CELEBRITY HOLIDAY BRICKTACULAR | FOX, Wed Dec 25
76.) 0.12 - SOUTHERN CHARM | BRAVO, Thu Dec 19
76.) 0.12 - CFP FIRST ROUND (Indiana at Notre Dame) | ESPN2, Fri Dec 20
80.) 0.11 - JESSE WATTERS PRIMETIME | FOX NEWS, Mon Dec 23
80.) 0.11 - LEGO MASTERS: CELEBRITY HOLIDAY BRICKTACULAR | FOX, Tue Dec 24
80.) 0.11 - NBA BASKETBALL (Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic) | TNT, Thu Dec 19
80.) 0.11 - MARRIED TO MEDICINE | BRAVO, Sun Dec 22
84.) 0.10 - FIRE COUNTRY | CBS, Fri Dec 20
84.) 0.10 - JERSEY SHORE FAMILY VACATION (Season 7B) | MTV, Thu Dec 19
86.) 0.09 - JESSE WATTERS PRIMETIME | FOX NEWS, Fri Dec 20
86.) 0.09 - GUTFELD! | FOX NEWS, Fri Dec 20
86.) 0.09 - HANNITY | FOX NEWS, Fri Dec 20
86.) 0.09 - GUTFELD! | FOX NEWS, Mon Dec 23
86.) 0.09 - HANNITY | FOX NEWS, Mon Dec 23
86.) 0.09 - YELLOWSTONE: 1923 | PARAMOUNT, Sun Dec 22
86.) 0.09 - 90 DAY FIANCÉ: BEFORE THE 90 DAYS (Pillow Talk) | TLC, Sun Dec 22
86.) 0.09 - FOX COLLEGE HOOPS FRIDAY-BIG EAST (St. John’s at Providence) | FOX, Fri Dec 20
86.) 0.09 - ON PATROL: LIVE | REELZ, Sat Dec 21
86.) 0.09 - MYSTERIES UNEARTHED WITH DANNY TREJO | HISTORY, Fri Dec 20
86.) 0.09 - WATCH WHAT HAPPENS LIVE | BRAVO, Thu Dec 19
97.) 0.08 - RACHEL MADDOW SHOW | MSNBC, Mon Dec 23
97.) 0.08 - 90 DAY: THE LAST RESORT (Between the Sheets) | TLC, Mon Dec 23
97.) 0.08 - COLLEGE BASKETBALL REGULAR SEASON (Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic, Championship: Nebraska vs. Oregon State) | ESPN2, Wed Dec 25
100.) 0.07 - YELLOWSTONE: 1923 | PARAMOUNT, Sun Dec 22
TV ratings, year-over-year-comparisons
Annual averages through Dec 25 in each year
Total viewership (P2+), live+same-day viewership. Preemptions excluded.
Annual averages through Dec 25 in each year
P18-49, live+same-day viewership. Preemptions excluded.
Year-over-year: Total viewership (P2+), live+same-day
Preemptions are excluded. To account for potential seasonality, the latest data for the current year is compared only to data as of the same day of the prior year (rather than comparing the partial curent year to the full prior year).
Year-over-year: P18-49, live+same-day
What's the rate of cord-cutting?
The pay TV universe was down about -5% year-over-year in Q3 (July to September 2024), at about 70,700,000 subscribers, down from about 74,600,000 the year prior.
How fast are cable customers cutting the cord? U.S. subscribers to pay TV by carrier.
*Estimate | **Partial estimate. Frontier reports residential subscribers but not commercial subscribers.
This is an estimate by me based on data reported by publicly-traded pay TV carriers (Charter, Comcast, Altice, Cable One, Cogeco, Dish, Verizon, Frontier, Hulu Live TV, Sling and Fubo), as well as estimates for carriers that don't publicly report customers. Notably, this estimate factors in an assumption that YouTube TV is an outlier as one of the few carriers with a growing customer base, and that the service is continuing to gain subscribers at a trajectory consistent with Google’s occasional disclosures about YouTube TV’s number of subscribers. I estimate that YouTube TV now has about 9.5 million subscribers, or 13% of the pay TV universe in the U.S.
==========
High-performing quarter-hours:
I selected the following quarter-hours arbitrarily but with the assistance of four different mathematical tests. In the interest of avoiding confirmation bias, the selections were made while the content labels were hidden from me, though the program, network, and time slots were visible to me--and that being said, it's not impossible to remember what content was in what time slot. The four tests were based on (1) growth from the prior quarter-hour (if applicable), (2) viewership compared to the quarter-hour's episode average, (3) growth in the prior quarter-hour (as quarter-hours that follow big gains tend to lose viewers and vice versa) and (4) Z-scores (predicted versus actual). In all four tests, ad breaks and time slot were taken into account.
In the future, this will be a 7-day update, but since's this is the first one, we'll use the trailing month as the timeline this time.
For quarter-hours Nov. 20 to Dec. 20, 2024:
Rampage: Fri, Nov 22, 2024: 10:15 - 10:30 PM
Big Boom! AJ, Big Justice, QT Marshall live angle; Private Party promo; Juice Robinson vs. The Butcher (thru PiP/fullscreen ads).
Total viewers (P2+): 272k, +9% than episode average. +3% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.11, +18%. +4%.
Ad breaks: 1
Smackdown: Fri, Nov 22, 2024: 9:45 - 10:00 PM
Ad break; The Bloodline, OG Bloodline, Paul Heyman, CM Punk live angle.
Total viewers (P2+): 1.720M, +9% than episode average. +15% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.50, +9%. +14%.
Ad breaks: 1
NXT: Tue, Nov 26, 2024: 8:45 - 9:00 PM
Tatum Paxley, Fatal Influence backstage angle; Tony D'Angelo vs. Shawn Spears (thru ad break).
Total viewers (P2+): 610k, -3% than episode average. -4% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.16, +9%. +16%.
Ad breaks: 1
NXT: Tue, Nov 26, 2024: 9:15 - 9:30 PM
Giulia vs. Kelani Jordan cont. (thru ad break); last chance qualifer angle; ad break.
Total viewers (P2+): 670k, +6% than episode average. +5% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.17, +15%. +7%.
Ad breaks: 2
Smackdown: Fri, Nov 29, 2024: 9:45 - 10:00 PM
Jey Uso vs. Jacob Fatu (thru ad break), post-match w/ The Bloodline.
Total viewers (P2+): 1.451M, +8% than episode average. +13% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.43, +7%. +13%.
Ad breaks: 1
Raw: Mon, Dec 2, 2024: 8:15 - 8:30 PM
Seth Rollins, CM Punk, Jey Uso, Sami Zayn live angle; Judgment Day backstage angle; Damage CTRL vs. Liv Morgan & Raquel Rodriguez.
Total viewers (P2+): 2.022M, +18% than episode average. +10% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.64, +18%. +7%.
Ad breaks: 0
Raw: Mon, Dec 2, 2024: 9:00 - 9:15 PM
New Day live angle; ad break.
Total viewers (P2+): 1.882M, +10% than episode average. +14% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.60, +11%. +17%.
Ad breaks: 1
NXT: Tue, Dec 3, 2024: 8:45 - 9:00 PM
NXT tag team title battle royal cont.; ad break; Eric Bischoff live promo.
Total viewers (P2+): 618k, +4% than episode average. +4% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.14, +11%. +12%.
Ad breaks: 1
Dynamite: Wed, Dec 4, 2024: 8:15 - 8:30 PM
Fletcher vs. Benjamin cont.; Hook live promo, angle w/ Christian Cage & The Patriarchy; Mercedes Mone promo; ad break.
Total viewers (P2+): 694k, +18% than episode average. -6% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.21, +23%. +3%.
Ad breaks: 1
Collision: Sat, Dec 7, 2024: 8:15 - 8:30 PM
Darby Allin vs. Komander cont.; Don Callis, Konosuke Takeshita, Powerhouse Hobbs backstage angle; ad break; Serena Deeb vs. Willow Nightingale (thru PiP/fullscreen ads).
Total viewers (P2+): 314k, +13% than episode average. +18% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.08, +19%. +17%.
Ad breaks: 2
Dynamite: Wed, Dec 11, 2024: 8:30 - 8:45 PM
Christian Cage, Hook angle; Claudio Castagnoli vs. Will Ospreay (thru PiP ads).
Total viewers (P2+): 619k, +4% than episode average. -2% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.19, +10%. +1%.
Ad breaks: 1
SNME: Sat, Dec 14, 2024: 9:45 - 10:00 PM
Cody Rhodes vs. Kevin Owens (thru PiP ads), post-match.
Total viewers (P2+): 1.733M, +9% than episode average. +12% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.49, +18%. +11%.
Ad breaks: 1
Dynamite: Wed, Dec 18, 2024: 9:00 - 9:15 PM
Ricochet, The Hurt Syndicate live angle; Shelton Benjamin vs. The Beast Mortos (thru PiP ads), post-match w/ The Hurt Syndicate, Daniel Garcia.
Total viewers (P2+): 626k, +0% than episode average. +1% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.21, +10%. +12%.
Ad breaks: 1
Smackdown: Fri, Dec 20, 2024: 8:15 - 8:30 PM
The Bloodline, Drew McIntyre, Andrade, LA Knight, Apollo Crews live angle; ad break; Andrade, Crews & Knight vs. The Bloodline (thru ad break).
Total viewers (P2+): 1.324M, -0% than episode average. -3% from prior quarter-hour.
P18-49 rating: 0.39, +5%. +2%.
Ad breaks: 2
==========
Merchandise
Items that have appeared most frequently in online shops' top sellers listings in the last 30 days.
WWEShop apparel items listed highly on 'Top Sellers' page
1. Men's Black Roman Reigns OTC T-Shirt
Days in top 10: 19
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 61%
Reverse rank value: 1,257
2. Men's WWE Red John Cena Farewell Tour T-Shirt
Days in top 10: 16
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 52%
Reverse rank value: 1,216
3. Men's Black Roman Reigns OTC Pullover Hoodie
Days in top 10: 13
Days on shop: 30
% days in top 10: 43%
Reverse rank value: 1,143
4. Men's White/Black CM Punk Best In The World Ringer T-Shirt
Days in top 10: 8
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 26%
Reverse rank value: 1,132
5. Men's White Jey Uso Yeet Shades T-Shirt
Days in top 10: 7
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 23%
Reverse rank value: 801
ShopAEW items listed highly on 'Top Sellers' page
1. Will Ospreay - Billy Goat FC Jersey (Ready To Ship)
Days in top 10: 31
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 100%
Reverse rank value: 1,436
2. DC x AEW - AEW Origins Comic Book (24 Pages)
Days in top 10: 31
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 100%
Reverse rank value: 1,442
3. Darby Allin - Under Ground Zip Hoodie (Double-Sided)
Days in top 10: 21
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 68%
Reverse rank value: 1,249
4. Darby Allin - Sherpa Fleece Zip Hoodie (Ready to Ship)
Days in top 10: 20
Days on shop: 21
% days in top 10: 95%
Reverse rank value: 962
5. Jay White - King Me
Days in top 10: 11
Days on shop: 31
% days in top 10: 35%
Reverse rank value: 1,161